Media Summary: The pundits we all listen to are no better at predictions than a “dart-throwing chimp,” and they are routinely surpassed by normal ... How do people react to difficult ethical tradeoffs? Discuss this talk on the Effective Altruism Forum: ... IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 0:00:00 - Intro 0:09:15 - How to prevent confirmation bias for
Prof Philip Tetlock On His - Detailed Analysis & Overview
The pundits we all listen to are no better at predictions than a “dart-throwing chimp,” and they are routinely surpassed by normal ... How do people react to difficult ethical tradeoffs? Discuss this talk on the Effective Altruism Forum: ... IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 0:00:00 - Intro 0:09:15 - How to prevent confirmation bias for In the new book, Superforecasting, Wharton In "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction", Yogi Berra once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
Can you predict the future? Or at least gauge the probability of political or economic events in the near future? Most "experts" suck at predicting the future. If you poll a bunch of economists and ask them what's gonna happen in the economy, ... Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says I love coffee! Please support my channel with a $5 contribution by buying me a coffee: "Superforecasting (2015) explores the skill of predicting the future, revealing that many, including experts, struggle with this ability.
